Sat, Oct 9, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
New York Rangers 6, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 210 | 29 | 29 | 628 |
| BUF | 04 | 119 | 213 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:53NYRDerek StepanAssists: Dan Girardi, Sean Avery · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 15:42NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Artem Anisimov · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 11:07BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Patrick Kaleta, Paul Gaustad · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 15:08NYRDerek StepanAssists: Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.46 xG3–1
- P2 18:20NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Sean Avery, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.21 xG4–1
- P3 1:08NYRErik ChristensenAssists: Marian Gaborik, Alex Frolov · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–1
- P3 5:40BUFJordan LeopoldPPAssists: Tim Connolly, Drew Stafford · Slap, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 14:23BUFDerek RoyAssists: Tyler Ennis, Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–3
- P3 18:35NYRBrandon DubinskyENAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.68 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:00NYRSteve Eminger: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:44NYRAlex Frolov: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:14BUFAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:39BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:44BUFSteve Montador: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:25NYRSteve Eminger: Interference2 min
- P3 5:26NYRBrandon Prust: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:28NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:35BUFPaul Gaustad: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:35BUFPaul Gaustad: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Christensen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Avery – Stepan10:48
xG 0.83–0.32 (72%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Boogaard – Boyle – Prust5:26
xG 0.10–0.10 (48%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov11:49
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
- Gaborik – Frolov – Christensen11:17
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Sauer10:18
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Staal16:52
xG 0.75–0.63 (54%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
- Eminger – Girardi2:08
xG 0.03–0.01 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestNiedermayer – Grier – Hecht6:45
xG 0.39–0.10 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Hecht – Connolly – Pominville5:04
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Vanek3:04
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Stafford – Ennis9:05
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Montador15:50
xG 0.81–0.32 (71%)attempts 17–18goals 2–0
- Morrisonn – Myers14:54
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 15–10goals 0–2
- Rivet – Sekera12:42
xG 0.70–0.97 (42%)attempts 16–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).