Sat, Oct 9, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Atlanta Thrashers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 013 | 29 | 18 | 330 |
| TBL | 220 | 29 | 17 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:23TBLSteve DowniePPAssists: Ryan Malone, Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 8:21TBLDominic MooreAssists: Teddy Purcell, Sean Bergenheim · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 2:20TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 5:21TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Steve Downie · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 16:31ATLToby EnstromPPAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 18:12ATLBen EagerUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 7:41ATLChris ThorburnAssists: Brent Sopel, Ben Eager · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 10:59TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Randy Jones · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:39ATLRich Peverley: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 1:21ATLToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:48TBLBrett Clark: Interference2 min
- P2 8:13ATLChris Thorburn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:13TBLSteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:51TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 11:27TBLPavel Kubina: Interference2 min
- P2 13:42ATLRon Hainsey: Holding2 min
- P2 15:30TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:48TBLDominic Moore: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 4:13TBLVincent Lecavalier: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:20ATLDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P3 19:51ATLBen Eager: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- Thorburn – Eager – Burmistrov8:43
xG 0.26–0.32 (44%)attempts 5–8goals 2–0
- Modin – Antropov – Dawes9:41
xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Ladd – Bergfors – Little9:15
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Stewart – Peverley – Kane8:50
xG 0.26–0.72 (26%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian2:40
xG 0.11–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien13:34
xG 0.58–0.65 (47%)attempts 19–13goals 0–2
- Sopel – Hainsey7:52
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Downie – Stamkos8:05
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Moore – Bergenheim – Purcell6:56
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell5:52
xG 0.34–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Malone9:05
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Lundin12:01
xG 0.83–0.42 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Clark – Hedman11:53
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Jones – Vernace6:35
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).