Sat, Oct 9, 2010·Ericsson Globe, StockholmNeutral site
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 112 | 05 | 16 | 12 | 325 |
| SJS | 17 | 012 | 116 | 00 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02SJSDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Jason Demers, Ryane Clowe · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 3:13CBJRick NashAssists: Antoine Vermette, Kristian Huselius · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 5:07CBJKristian HuseliusPPAssists: Nikita Filatov, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 7:05SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 1:56CBJEthan MoreauGWGAssists: Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:06CBJAntoine Vermette: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 5:52SJSJason Demers: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:08SJSJamie McGinn: Kneeing2 min
- P2 0:15SJSJamie McGinn: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:49CBJAntoine Vermette: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:22CBJEthan Moreau: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:08CBJAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:22CBJJan Hejda: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:40SJSDevin Setoguchi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:30CBJMike Commodore: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:23CBJEthan Moreau: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:07CBJRostislav Klesla: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMoreau – Pahlsson – Umberger7:17
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Nash10:04
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Dorsett – Voracek3:14
xG 0.03–0.09 (25%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Voracek – Filatov8:22
xG 0.09–0.32 (21%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Russell6:04
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Klesla – Tyutin2:04
xG 0.03–0.03 (50%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Commodore – Tyutin4:05
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Pavelski – Mitchell4:38
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Setoguchi – McGinn6:31
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Heatley – Clowe – Couture5:34
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Clowe – Pavelski – Mitchell3:34
xG 0.03–0.14 (19%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Demers9:55
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Boyle – Murray11:13
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Wallin – Vlasic13:39
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).