Sun, Oct 10, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 1, Calgary Flames 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 07 | 17 | 122 |
| CGY | 012 | 16 | 214 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:31CGYCurtis GlencrossSHAssists: Brett Sutter · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P3 1:20CGYCraig ConroyGWGAssists: Brendan Morrison · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 14:06LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 19:37CGYNiklas HagmanENAssists: Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:57LAKKevin Westgarth: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:47CGYTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:49LAKJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P1 19:45CGYRobyn Regehr: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:50LAKKevin Westgarth: Interference2 min
- P2 10:17CGYCraig Conroy: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:34LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:25LAKBrad Richardson: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Stoll – Richardson5:27
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Westgarth – Clifford – Schenn5:12
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Williams – Stoll – Schenn2:30
xG 0.06–0.16 (27%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Smyth – Brown – Kopitar15:16
xG 0.29–0.41 (42%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Johnson10:32
xG 0.30–0.01 (96%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Doughty13:21
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Drewiske6:54
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMeyer – Sutter – Backlund2:00
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Morrison – Hagman – Jackman2:41
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay12:07
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Jackman – Glencross – Backlund3:21
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Giordano9:32
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- White – Brodie4:01
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Brodie2:25
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).