Thu, Oct 14, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 15 | 18 | 111 | 324 |
| PHI | 114 | 08 | 14 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:11TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Steve Downie, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 17:03PHINikolay ZherdevAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 14:49TBLDominic MooreAssists: Adam Hall, Brett Clark · Backhand, 0.34 xG2–1
- P3 1:27TBLPavel KubinaGWGAssists: Steve Downie, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 9:59PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Ville Leino, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:45TBLSteve Downie: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:32TBLSean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:07PHIBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:41PHIChris Pronger: Holding2 min
- P2 3:59PHISean O'Donnell: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:59TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:49TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 7:10PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
- P2 10:40TBLVictor Hedman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:31PHIMike Richards: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:33PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:41PHIMatt Carle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Moore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Moore – Thompson6:00
xG 0.67–0.27 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos9:25
xG 0.35–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Malone4:20
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell4:12
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Lundin10:34
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Jones – Vernace5:12
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Clark – Hedman11:45
xG 0.41–0.49 (45%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Richards – van Riemsdyk4:21
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Giroux – van Riemsdyk5:50
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Brière – Carter – Richards2:09
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Shelley – Betts – Powe2:36
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Coburn2:13
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn12:53
xG 0.48–0.47 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Pronger – Carle10:59
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).