Thu, Oct 14, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 04 | 211 | 224 |
| OTT | 116 | 113 | 110 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:39OTTMike FisherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 10:23OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 7:20CARSergei SamsonovPPAssists: Eric Staal, Joni Pitkanen · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 8:59CAREric StaalAssists: Erik Cole, Jeff Skinner · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 14:03OTTMike FisherPPGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Ryan Shannon · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:51CARAnton Babchuk: Holding2 min
- P1 8:23OTTJason Spezza: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:59OTTMilan Michalek: Holding2 min
- P2 11:58OTTMike Fisher: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:28CARJeff Skinner: Interference2 min
- P3 6:59OTTMilan Michalek: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:56CARJussi Jokinen: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Cole – LaRose – Staal6:55
xG 0.13–0.10 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – LaRose4:35
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Staal – Skinner5:22
xG 0.74–0.77 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner6:31
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Pitkanen14:44
xG 0.87–0.51 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Gleason – Babchuk2:24
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Gleason – McBain12:03
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Neil – Foligno9:38
xG 0.90–0.12 (88%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Michalek14:14
xG 1.35–0.78 (63%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Kovalev – Regin – Shannon8:25
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Kelly – Winchester7:08
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Phillips14:28
xG 1.32–0.87 (60%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Carkner – Campoli12:24
xG 0.58–0.15 (79%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Lee – Karlsson10:30
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).