Thu, Oct 14, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 07 | 112 | 126 |
| DAL | 13 | 38 | 04 | 415 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41DALBrad RichardsPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 0:44DALLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Brad Richards, James Neal · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 7:03DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 16:26DALJames NealAssists: Brad Richards, Trevor Daley · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–4
- P3 11:25DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:28DETBrad Stuart: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:57DETJohan Franzen: Interference2 min
- P1 15:11DALJames Neal: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:44DALJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:37DALBrandon Segal: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:21DALKarlis Skrastins: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:38DETRuslan Salei: Interference2 min
- P3 9:35DALBrad Richards: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Modano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Filppula – Hudler3:07
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen3:50
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Modano – Cleary – Hudler5:52
xG 0.21–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Zetterberg2:40
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Kindl3:00
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Salei – Kronwall3:09
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Salei – Kindl8:54
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Burish9:53
xG 0.22–0.07 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Petersen – Ott – Sutherby7:01
xG 0.02–0.13 (14%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal14:06
xG 0.53–0.72 (42%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Barch – Segal – Wandell5:51
xG 0.01–0.22 (5%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann13:41
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Daley – Fistric16:40
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Skrastins – Niskanen12:32
xG 0.10–0.54 (16%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).