Thu, Oct 14, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Florida Panthers 3, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 29 | 04 | 15 | 318 |
| CGY | 06 | 04 | 017 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:20FLARadek DvorakGWGAssists: Marty Reasoner, Cory Stillman · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 7:25FLARadek DvorakAssists: Marty Reasoner, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 9:57FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Rostislav Olesz, David Booth · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:42CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:08CGYTim Jackman: Interference2 min
- P2 5:10CGYJay Bouwmeester: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:08FLAKenndal McArdle: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:49FLABryan McCabe: Interference2 min
- P3 1:21FLADavid Booth: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:15FLACory Stillman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Dvorak – Reasoner10:31
xG 0.53–0.26 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Olesz – Booth – Matthias9:23
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Frolik2:09
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Bernier – Santorelli – McArdle5:17
xG 0.01–0.35 (3%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Wideman15:59
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 13–16goals 3–0
- McCabe – Kulikov14:54
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Weaver – Garrison11:25
xG 0.14–0.65 (18%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Hagman – Jackman4:06
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan6:16
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Morrison – Glencross – Backlund4:15
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Tanguay6:12
xG 0.18–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Giordano16:15
xG 1.17–0.14 (90%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Regehr – White12:02
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- White – Brodie2:40
xG 0.01–0.04 (24%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).