Fri, Oct 15, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim
Atlanta Thrashers 5, Anaheim Ducks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 110 | 18 | 211 | 04 | 1 | 533 |
| ANA | 111 | 218 | 111 | 01 | 0 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:17ATLAnthony StewartAssists: Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 8:43ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Ryan Getzlaf · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 9:43ANAToni LydmanAssists: Teemu Selanne, Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 13:21ATLChris ThorburnPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 19:08ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Saku Koivu, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 6:35ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne · Snap, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 10:35ATLAnthony StewartPPAssists: Rich Peverley, Johnny Oduya · Tip-in, 0.32 xG3–4
- P3 14:38ATLAnthony StewartPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 2. ATL Evander Kane stopped
- 3. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
- 4. ATL Rich Peverley stopped
- 5. ANA Teemu Selanne stopped
- 6. ATL Bryan Little stopped
- 7. ANA Saku Koivu stopped
- 8. ATL Nigel Dawes scored
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:54ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 7:54ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:54ATLChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:52ATLBryan Little: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:30ATLRich Peverley: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:36ATLChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:19ANALubomir Visnovsky: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:50ATLNik Antropov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:15ANAToni Lydman: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:22ATLFreddy Meyer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:50ANABrendan Mikkelson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:48ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:55ATLBen Eager: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Eager – Burmistrov10:31
xG 0.72–0.25 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Stewart – Ladd – Little9:54
xG 0.50–0.45 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Antropov – Peverley – Kane7:56
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Modin – Slater – Dawes5:24
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSopel – Hainsey7:17
xG 0.42–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:01
xG 0.63–0.32 (66%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Oduya – Meyer14:06
xG 0.69–0.74 (48%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan9:58
xG 0.68–0.04 (94%)attempts 19–2goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake8:38
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Chipchura – Beleskey – Sexton11:31
xG 0.27–0.57 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Marchant – Parros – Bodie8:46
xG 0.11–0.53 (17%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky14:06
xG 0.57–0.08 (88%)attempts 25–2goals 0–0
- Mara – Fowler13:06
xG 0.76–0.49 (61%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Brookbank – Mikkelson12:07
xG 0.02–0.96 (2%)attempts 1–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).