Sat, Oct 16, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Washington Capitals 3, Nashville Predators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 013 | 212 | 12 | 334 |
| NSH | 118 | 112 | 08 | 01 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:07NSHJ-P DumontAssists: Colin Wilson, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 5:32NSHJordin TootooAssists: David Legwand · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 4:33WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 12:14WSHTomas FleischmannAssists: Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 1:44WSHBrooks LaichPPGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.27 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:24WSHBrooks Laich: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:02WSHJeff Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:22WSHMarcus Johansson: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:53WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:09WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:27NSHSteve Sullivan: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:04NSHShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 17:34WSHNicklas Backstrom: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:40NSHJ-P Dumont: Interference2 min
- P3 4:06NSHCody Franson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- OT 0:47NSHRyan Suter: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Fleischmann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Fehr – Johansson6:54
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Steckel – Gordon4:53
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Laich – Fleischmann – Semin9:43
xG 0.44–0.82 (35%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom14:42
xG 0.31–0.76 (29%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Alzner15:01
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Sloan – Schultz2:12
xG 0.07–0.06 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fahey – Sloan7:20
xG 0.36–0.46 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Ward – Tootoo12:56
xG 0.73–0.23 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist12:16
xG 0.74–0.50 (60%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Dumont – Goc – Wilson3:57
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Dumont – Smithson – Wilson2:07
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Klein12:25
xG 1.00–0.20 (83%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber16:01
xG 0.73–0.61 (55%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Klein – O'Brien2:16
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).