Sat, Oct 16, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 2, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 211 | 016 | 014 | 02 | 1 | 243 |
| DAL | 18 | 18 | 05 | 04 | 3 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Brad Boyes, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 3:48STLAndy McDonaldPPAssists: David Backes, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–0
- P1 18:00DALJames NealAssists: Loui Eriksson, Brad Richards · Slap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 14:43DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Brad Richards, James Neal · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Brad Richards scored
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
- 3. DAL Loui Eriksson scored
- 4. STL Brad Boyes scored
- 5. DAL Mike Ribeiro scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:07DALKarlis Skrastins: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:16STLDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P2 6:48DALMark Fistric: Delaying game2 min
- P2 15:21STLB.J. Crombeen: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:59STLTyson Strachan: Delaying game2 min
- P3 4:09DALKrys Barch: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:02DALNicklas Grossmann: Delaying game2 min
- P3 7:29DALNicklas Grossmann: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 9:19STLT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- OT 4:44STLDavid Backes: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Boyes – Berglund8:58
xG 1.03–0.35 (75%)attempts 21–3goals 1–1
- Backes – Oshie – Perron8:48
xG 0.70–0.12 (85%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – D'Agostini2:34
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – Crombeen5:59
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pietrangelo5:41
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Jackman – Johnson12:50
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Brewer – Polak15:10
xG 0.97–0.87 (53%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Eriksson – Neal12:22
xG 0.74–0.59 (56%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
- Petersen – Ott – Sutherby5:42
xG 0.02–0.08 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish10:52
xG 0.44–0.60 (43%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
- Barch – Segal – Wandell4:09
xG 0.04–0.36 (10%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Skrastins – Niskanen10:53
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 7–12goals 2–1
- Daley – Fistric12:33
xG 0.61–0.68 (48%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Robidas – Grossmann12:31
xG 0.25–0.75 (25%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).