Wed, Oct 20, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Buffalo Sabres 4, Atlanta Thrashers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 216 | 115 | 442 |
| ATL | 02 | 010 | 16 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Steve Montador, Chris Butler · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 1:30BUFTyler MyersPPGWGAssists: Chris Butler, Derek Roy · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 2:34BUFCody McCormickAssists: Paul Gaustad, Craig Rivet · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 1:47ATLToby EnstromPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 10:25BUFThomas VanekAssists: Drew Stafford, Steve Montador · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:17BUFTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:55ATLChris Mason: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:24ATLNigel Dawes: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 3:58BUFJochen Hecht: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:43BUFDrew Stafford: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:11ATLAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:25ATLBen Eager: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:08BUFJochen Hecht: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:17ATLDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P3 16:14ATLBen Eager: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Vanek – Stafford8:30
xG 0.70–0.16 (82%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Hecht – Connolly – McCormick9:49
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Ennis7:09
xG 0.36–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe9:37
xG 0.20–0.34 (38%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Myers12:56
xG 1.09–0.09 (93%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Montador – Butler11:52
xG 0.87–0.18 (83%)attempts 16–4goals 2–0
- Rivet – Sekera12:06
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- Thorburn – Eager – Burmistrov6:57
xG 0.08–0.19 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Modin – Antropov – Peverley2:06
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Slater – Dawes – Kane3:35
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Antropov – Peverley – Kane5:45
xG 0.14–0.50 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:51
xG 0.46–0.82 (36%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Oduya – Meyer8:01
xG 0.04–0.52 (8%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Sopel – Hainsey9:36
xG 0.04–1.04 (3%)attempts 3–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).