Wed, Oct 20, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 28 | 17 | 015 | 330 |
| LAK | 214 | 17 | 16 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:43LAKRyan SmythAssists: Jarret Stoll, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 7:31CARChad LaRoseAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 17:46CAREric StaalUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 19:51LAKMichal HandzusAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 6:58LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 14:39CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Anton Babchuk, Erik Cole · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 3:19LAKAndrei LoktionovGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:33LAKRyan Smyth: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:35CARAnton Babchuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:40CARJamie McBain: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:29CARTom Kostopoulos: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:12LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P3 16:00LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P3 19:45CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCole – Ruutu – Skinner13:07
xG 0.97–0.30 (76%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Bowman – Dalpe6:12
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – LaRose – Staal12:38
xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Kostopoulos – O'Sullivan – Sutter8:09
xG 0.14–0.54 (21%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Babchuk5:04
xG 0.22–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Pitkanen – McBain9:33
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 2–1
- Pitkanen – Babchuk7:57
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Williams – Stoll10:37
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Loktionov11:04
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Handzus – Ponikarovsky – Simmonds9:24
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Clifford6:00
xG 0.00–0.52 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty6:04
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Muzzin2:18
xG 0.34–0.07 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Scuderi3:51
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).