Thu, Oct 21, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Calgary Flames 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 216 | 05 | 015 | 236 |
| DET | 112 | 18 | 210 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:24CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Curtis Glencross, Cory Sarich · Snap, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 17:29DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Tomas Holmstrom · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 18:10CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Brendan Morrison, Curtis Glencross · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 3:51DETNicklas LidstromPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 7:55DETJohan FranzenGWGAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 16:43DETTodd BertuzziUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:23DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P2 2:54CGYSteve Staios: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 6:30DETRuslan Salei: Holding2 min
- P2 8:58CGYNiklas Hagman: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:00CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:37DETJiri Hudler: Interference2 min
- P3 8:53CGYStefan Meyer: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:22DETMike Modano: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:12DETRuslan Salei: Delaying game2 min
- P3 13:19CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:46DETBrad Stuart: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Glencross – Backlund6:22
xG 0.53–0.05 (91%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Conroy – Jackman – Meyer5:38
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Stajan – Bourque2:01
xG 0.01–0.06 (17%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Hagman – Bourque10:16
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Giordano10:13
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
- Staios – Bouwmeester14:05
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Regehr – White12:24
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen10:33
xG 0.49–0.16 (75%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Eaves – Miller – Helm5:02
xG 0.33–0.07 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Zetterberg3:28
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg9:44
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalei – Kronwall3:39
xG 0.26–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart13:03
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Janik – Kronwall11:06
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).