Thu, Oct 21, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Dallas Stars 4, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 214 | 29 | 06 | 429 |
| FLA | 013 | 06 | 19 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:56DALSteve OttAssists: Jamie Benn, Nicklas Grossmann · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 19:39DALTom WandellGWGAssists: Karlis Skrastins, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.26 xG2–0
- P2 8:09DALJames NealAssists: Loui Eriksson, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 19:26DALTom WandellAssists: Jamie Benn, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–0
- P3 16:54FLAStephen WeissAssists: Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:10DALNicklas Grossmann: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:10DALAdam Burish: Instigator2 min
- P1 9:10DALAdam Burish: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:10DALAdam Burish: Misconduct10 min
- P1 9:10FLADennis Wideman: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:32DALMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 14:27FLABryan Allen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:55FLACory Stillman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Wandell – Benn6:50
xG 0.99–0.21 (82%)attempts 10–8goals 3–1
- Barch – Petersen – Wandell3:15
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal12:20
xG 0.41–0.08 (83%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish9:59
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann14:42
xG 0.84–0.17 (83%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Skrastins – Daley2:30
xG 0.68–0.04 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Skrastins – Niskanen15:19
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Booth – Frolik5:52
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Olesz – Booth – Santorelli3:45
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Bernier – Olesz – Santorelli3:44
xG 0.04–0.02 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Reinprecht – Higgins – Matthias2:58
xG 0.01–0.07 (14%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Weaver13:07
xG 0.74–0.18 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- McCabe – Wideman3:22
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ellerby4:19
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).