Thu, Oct 21, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 113 | 214 | 17 | 434 |
| COL | 115 | 06 | 110 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:43COLKyle CumiskeyAssists: Chris Stewart · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 19:11SJSScott NicholAssists: Jamal Mayers, John McCarthy · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 1:08SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 8:44SJSJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.61 xG3–1
- P3 7:25COLMilan HejdukAssists: Chris Stewart, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
- P3 18:48SJSLogan CoutureENAssists: Douglas Murray, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.54 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P2 0:29COLMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:13COLKevin Porter: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:59COLTJ Galiardi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:34COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:38SJSDan Boyle: Interference2 min
- P3 9:04COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:04SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:08SJSNiclas Wallin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:16COLMatt Duchene: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:29SJSDany Heatley: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:19COLChris Stewart: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – McGinn – Couture5:04
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – McCarthy7:07
xG 0.35–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Mitchell – McGinn4:12
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley6:01
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Demers13:36
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Wallin – Vlasic13:56
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Boyle – Murray15:04
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestYip – Galiardi – Duchene2:01
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stewart – Galiardi10:59
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Hejduk – Yip – Duchene12:06
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Winnik – McLeod – O'Reilly11:01
xG 0.25–0.33 (44%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Cumiskey3:25
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Liles – Wilson12:23
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Foote – Liles2:13
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).