Fri, Oct 22, 2010·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Minnesota Wild 1, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 013 | 16 | 124 |
| VAN | 110 | 112 | 313 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:00VANRaffi TorresAssists: Jannik Hansen, Manny Malhotra · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 4:28VANRyan KeslerGWGAssists: Mason Raymond, Andrew Alberts · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–2
- P3 11:05VANManny MalhotraAssists: Alexander Edler, Raffi Torres · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 16:36VANManny MalhotraAssists: Jannik Hansen, Cory Schneider · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–4
- P3 17:25MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Guillaume Latendresse, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 17:40VANJeff TambelliniAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:14MINAndrew Brunette: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:03MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:03VANGuillaume Desbiens: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:20VANJeff Tambellini: Interference2 min
- P2 0:18VANManny Malhotra: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:26MINBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P2 17:29VANManny Malhotra: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:05MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:35MINMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:30VANAndrew Alberts: Interference2 min
- P3 14:10MINCal Clutterbuck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestMadden – Nystrom – Clutterbuck6:06
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Brodziak – Staubitz2:26
xG 0.03–0.30 (10%)attempts 1–5goals 0–2
- Cullen – Havlat – Latendresse5:23
xG 0.06–0.40 (12%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu7:44
xG 0.12–0.55 (17%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Falk10:07
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky12:17
xG 0.35–1.21 (23%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns15:04
xG 0.32–1.37 (19%)attempts 12–19goals 1–3
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Tambellini11:20
xG 1.49–0.17 (90%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Raymond8:53
xG 1.02–0.15 (88%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen8:35
xG 0.39–0.09 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Schaefer – Desbiens – Glass6:22
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Parent12:24
xG 1.10–0.20 (85%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Edler14:44
xG 1.06–0.43 (71%)attempts 18–10goals 3–0
- Alberts – Rome12:19
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).