Sat, Oct 23, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 04 | 27 | 03 | 214 |
| PHI | 214 | 113 | 213 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:08PHIMike RichardsUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 18:59PHIVille LeinoPPAssists: Mike Richards, Chris Pronger · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 6:35TORPhil KesselAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Francois Beauchemin · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 16:21PHIBlair BettsGWGAssists: Darroll Powe · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 18:46TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Mike Komisarek · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–3
- P3 1:05PHIScott HartnellAssists: Mike Richards, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 7:47PHIDaniel BrièreUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:40PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:46PHIDarroll Powe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:34PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:34TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 18:14TORFredrik Sjostrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:21TORPhil Kessel: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 7:37TORKris Versteeg: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:35TORJean-Sebastien Giguere: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 13:57PHIJeff Carter: Holding2 min
- P3 10:35TORMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:30TORColby Armstrong: Boarding5 min
- P3 12:30TORColby Armstrong: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:30PHIAndrej Meszaros: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:03PHIJody Shelley: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Brent
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Kessel – Kulemin5:05
xG 0.28–0.15 (66%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Orr – Mitchell – Brown6:53
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Versteeg – Bozak7:24
xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin3:16
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Gunnarsson9:06
xG 0.60–0.46 (57%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Schenn12:59
xG 0.16–0.56 (22%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf8:51
xG 0.23–0.82 (22%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino9:39
xG 0.91–0.39 (70%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Shelley – Betts – Carcillo5:23
xG 0.41–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Carter – van Riemsdyk5:32
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Giroux – Powe7:38
xG 0.21–0.55 (28%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Meszaros11:08
xG 0.47–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Pronger – Carle7:55
xG 0.39–0.05 (89%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- O'Donnell – Coburn2:15
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).