Sat, Oct 23, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 3, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 215 | 010 | 333 |
| FLA | 214 | 18 | 18 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58FLAMike WeaverAssists: Keaton Ellerby · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 9:25NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Blake Comeau, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P1 11:15FLASteve BernierAssists: Dennis Wideman, Keaton Ellerby · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 8:01NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: James Wisniewski, PA Parenteau · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 15:57FLADavid BoothAssists: Mike Weaver, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.38 xG2–3
- P2 18:53NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Blake Comeau, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 13:28FLARadek DvorakGWGAssists: Marty Reasoner, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:13FLASteve Reinprecht: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:55NYIJon Sim: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:10FLADavid Booth: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:22NYIBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:55FLAKeaton Ellerby: Interference2 min
- P2 7:26FLABryan McCabe: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:56NYITrent Hunter: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:15FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:18NYIZenon Konopka: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:01NYIPA Parenteau: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00NYIJames Wisniewski: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reinprecht won the faceoff against Konopka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Sim – Parenteau – Nielsen3:14
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Moulson – Comeau – Tavares8:49
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Weight – Grabner – Niederreiter5:24
xG 0.03–0.36 (7%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Mottau – Martinek2:05
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Mottau – Wisniewski12:21
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Hillen2:27
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Booth – Frolik8:55
xG 0.80–0.43 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Higgins – Olesz – Santorelli3:05
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Weiss – Olesz – Frolik3:02
xG 0.13–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stillman – Dvorak – Reasoner10:02
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Ellerby9:45
xG 0.42–0.07 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Allen – Weaver12:40
xG 0.74–0.64 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- McCabe – Kulikov10:01
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).