Sat, Oct 23, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Anaheim Ducks 4, Detroit Red Wings 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 16 | 27 | 112 | 425 |
| DET | 114 | 212 | 215 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:42DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Tomas Holmstrom · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 19:38ANABobby RyanAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:34ANARyan CarterAssists: Todd Marchant, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 7:08ANADanny SyvretAssists: Bobby Ryan, Troy Bodie · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 10:23DETJohan FranzenAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.24 xG3–2
- P2 17:08DETTomas HolmstromAssists: Brad Stuart, Henrik Zetterberg · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 8:32ANATeemu SelanneUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 11:17DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Brad Stuart, Nicklas Lidstrom · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 19:48DETPavel DatsyukGWGAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:01ANALubomir Visnovsky: Interference2 min
- P1 7:16ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 9:19ANASaku Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:39DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Carter – Sexton2:15
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Marchant – Ryan – Carter9:02
xG 0.36–0.28 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Bodie – Chipchura – Beleskey3:03
xG 0.03–0.10 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey15:00
xG 0.34–0.63 (35%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brookbank – Syvret12:03
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Lilja – Brookbank2:22
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Mara – Syvret3:16
xG 0.01–0.28 (5%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg14:09
xG 1.02–0.20 (84%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen13:44
xG 1.12–0.32 (78%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Eaves – Miller – Helm8:02
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Modano – Cleary – Hudler9:41
xG 0.28–0.57 (33%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJanik – Kronwall12:30
xG 1.12–0.27 (80%)attempts 16–11goals 1–2
- Lidstrom – Stuart15:49
xG 0.85–0.37 (69%)attempts 17–9goals 3–1
- Salei – Kronwall9:52
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).