Wed, Oct 27, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 3, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 08 | 26 | 321 |
| MTL | 214 | 19 | 212 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:19MTLMathieu DarcheAssists: Jeff Halpern, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 17:54MTLTravis MoenSHAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Hal Gill · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 19:16NYIJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Doug Weight, Matt Moulson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 7:33MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Roman Hamrlik · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 0:13NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 6:56MTLJeff HalpernGWGAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Carey Price · Backhand, 0.01 xG2–4
- P3 12:56NYIDoug WeightAssists: James Wisniewski, Jack Hillen · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 18:58MTLAndrei KostitsynENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:32NYIJack Hillen: Interference2 min
- P1 7:48MTLRoman Hamrlik: Interference2 min
- P1 17:32MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:43MTLTravis Moen: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:48NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:48MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:31NYIJosh Bailey: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:41MTLJaroslav Spacek: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:11NYIRadek Martinek: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 10:23NYIJosh Bailey: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Parenteau – Comeau – Tavares2:56
xG 0.03–0.06 (34%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Moulson – Comeau – Tavares7:43
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Nielsen – Bailey8:44
xG 0.03–0.26 (11%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Weight – Martin – Niederreiter8:40
xG 0.04–0.88 (4%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMottau – Jurcina3:06
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Jurcina – Hillen8:53
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Eaton – Martinek13:11
xG 0.55–0.60 (48%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestLapierre – Pyatt – Eller7:56
xG 0.62–0.09 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Moen9:40
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Halpern – Darche – Pouliot5:59
xG 0.42–0.11 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn11:59
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Subban13:53
xG 0.85–0.09 (91%)attempts 24–4goals 2–0
- Gill – Gorges16:01
xG 0.78–0.12 (86%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Spacek12:41
xG 0.59–0.54 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).