Fri, Oct 29, 2010·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 7, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 412 | 28 | 12 | 722 |
| CHI | 215 | 114 | 112 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:53EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jordan Eberle, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 9:49CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 16:55EDMAles HemskyAssists: Ryan Whitney, Magnus Paajarvi · Slap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P1 17:30EDMJordan EberleAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Taylor Hall · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P1 18:04EDMSam GagnerAssists: Magnus Paajarvi · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P1 19:49CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–2
- P2 2:08EDMAndrew CoglianoGWGAssists: Gilbert Brule, Kurtis Foster · Tip-in, 0.14 xG5–2
- P2 10:46CHIJake DowellAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Jassen Cullimore · Backhand, 0.18 xG5–3
- P2 17:26EDMRyan JonesAssists: Kurtis Foster · Wrist, 0.19 xG6–3
- P3 14:08CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.03 xG6–4
- P3 18:38EDMSam GagnerENAssists: Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.61 xG7–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:27EDMTheo Peckham: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:09CHIJake Dowell: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:21EDMGilbert Brule: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:39EDMShawn Horcoff: Interference2 min
- P3 8:53EDMGilbert Brule: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:44EDMSam Gagner: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Fraser – Stortini – Jones6:53
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Penner – Brule – Cogliano9:46
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Paajarvi13:34
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Eberle – Hall14:41
xG 0.52–1.15 (31%)attempts 13–17goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestFoster – Peckham12:52
xG 0.68–0.39 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Gilbert – Whitney14:58
xG 0.61–0.86 (42%)attempts 10–18goals 3–1
- Strudwick – Smid15:53
xG 0.36–0.66 (36%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPisani – Bolland – Smith7:06
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Toews – Kane3:54
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Sharp – Stalberg – Toews9:23
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Dowell – Brouwer – Skille2:07
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook20:52
xG 0.96–0.48 (67%)attempts 24–10goals 1–2
- Cullimore – Hjalmarsson13:59
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
- Boynton – Hendry10:11
xG 0.50–0.76 (40%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).