Sat, Oct 30, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Buffalo Sabres 0, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 014 | 013 | 034 |
| DAL | 113 | 113 | 215 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34DALJames NealPPGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 18:20DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 5:05DALSteve OttSHAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–3
- P3 11:35DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:01BUFTyler Ennis: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 6:06BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:51BUFShaone Morrisonn: Interference2 min
- P1 10:41DALMatt Niskanen: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:17BUFThomas Vanek: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:49BUFCody McCormick: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:30DALToby Petersen: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:30BUFShaone Morrisonn: Interference2 min
- P3 19:17BUFCody McCormick: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Connolly – McCormick6:12
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Grier – Gaustad – Kaleta2:40
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Adam3:51
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hecht – Roy – Vanek2:52
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Montador16:27
xG 1.02–0.48 (68%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Sekera – Butler9:06
xG 0.43–0.50 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Sekera – Myers4:08
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Ott – Burish – Wandell7:10
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Petersen – Sutherby – Segal7:54
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal12:20
xG 0.86–0.95 (47%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn8:08
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Niskanen11:50
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Daley – Fistric15:56
xG 1.11–1.14 (49%)attempts 22–21goals 0–0
- Robidas – Grossmann14:40
xG 0.76–0.90 (46%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).