Wed, Nov 3, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh
New York Islanders 2, Carolina Hurricanes 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 012 | 212 | 233 |
| CAR | 315 | 210 | 27 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:12CARJoe CorvoAssists: Jeff Skinner, Chad LaRose · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:48CARJon MatsumotoAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Tom Kostopoulos · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 18:51CAREric StaalGWGAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Tom Kostopoulos · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 9:40CARBrandon SutterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–4
- P2 10:23CARJiri TlustyAssists: Jay Harrison, Anton Babchuk · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–5
- P3 2:12NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Doug Weight, Bruno Gervais · Snap, 0.24 xG1–5
- P3 10:09CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Eric Staal, Chad LaRose · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–6
- P3 15:29NYIPA ParenteauPPAssists: Blake Comeau, Rob Schremp · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–6
- P3 19:26CARJon MatsumotoAssists: Sergei Samsonov · Slap, 0.04 xG2–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:46NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:46CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:46NYIMike Mottau: Interference2 min
- P1 19:57NYIJames Wisniewski: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:35NYIDoug Weight: Interference2 min
- P2 14:59CARJon Matsumoto: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:39CARChad LaRose: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 9:12NYIRob Schremp: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:35CARAnton Babchuk: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Ruutu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestWeight – Nielsen – Grabner7:49
xG 0.62–0.46 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Hunter – Konopka – Martin9:08
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Comeau – Bailey – Tavares3:47
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares8:02
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Hillen12:04
xG 0.76–0.25 (75%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Eaton – Wisniewski2:25
xG 0.02–0.01 (74%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Hillen2:03
xG 0.13–0.29 (32%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Tlusty – Sutter10:51
xG 0.62–0.30 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Samsonov – Kostopoulos – Matsumoto8:50
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- LaRose – Staal – Skinner10:17
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Cole – Ruutu – Jokinen8:46
xG 0.13–0.43 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Gleason11:36
xG 0.39–0.08 (82%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Harrison – Babchuk8:44
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Harrison – McBain5:31
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).