Fri, Nov 5, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Florida Panthers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 312 | 011 | 18 | 431 |
| FLA | 319 | 115 | 316 | 750 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:05FLADavid BoothAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Bryan Allen · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 8:02CARErik ColeAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 10:49CARTim GleasonAssists: Brandon Sutter, Patrick Dwyer · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 12:21FLAStephen WeissAssists: Michael Frolik, Rostislav Olesz · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P1 18:17FLAMike SantorelliAssists: David Booth · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P1 18:24CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Jay Harrison, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 16:43FLAChris HigginsAssists: Radek Dvorak, Dennis Wideman · Snap, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 2:24FLAMarty ReasonerGWGAssists: Radek Dvorak, Bryan Allen · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 4:47CARSergei SamsonovAssists: Jay Harrison · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–5
- P3 17:13FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Stephen Weiss, Rostislav Olesz · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–6
- P3 19:11FLAStephen WeissENAssists: Bryan Allen, Marty Reasoner · Tip-in, 0.61 xG4–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:49FLASteve Reinprecht: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:44FLARostislav Olesz: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:42FLASteve Bernier: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:15CARJoe Corvo: Holding2 min
- P1 19:20FLABryan Allen: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:28FLABryan McCabe: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:28FLAKeaton Ellerby: Holding2 min
- P3 10:08CARAnton Babchuk: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 11:47FLABryan McCabe: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCole – Ruutu – Jokinen6:21
xG 0.24–0.13 (66%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter9:13
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Samsonov – LaRose – Staal2:48
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Samsonov – Kostopoulos – Matsumoto4:43
xG 0.12–0.22 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBabchuk – Carson2:52
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carson – McBain3:58
xG 0.16–0.19 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Corvo – Harrison3:25
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Reasoner – Higgins10:16
xG 0.93–0.10 (91%)attempts 19–5goals 2–1
- Weiss – Olesz – Frolik11:49
xG 0.91–0.17 (85%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Matthias6:09
xG 0.45–0.05 (91%)attempts 10–1goals 1–1
- Reinprecht – Bernier – Booth5:27
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov11:41
xG 0.87–0.13 (87%)attempts 20–5goals 1–1
- Allen – Wideman15:28
xG 1.25–0.69 (64%)attempts 23–17goals 4–2
- McCabe – Ellerby11:28
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).