Sat, Nov 6, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 015 | 16 | 19 | 01 | 2 | 331 |
| TOR | 19 | 110 | 03 | 03 | 1 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:43TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Tomas Kaberle · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 15:41TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 18:46BUFDerek RoyAssists: Jordan Leopold, Patrick Kaleta · Snap, 0.30 xG1–2
- P3 19:46BUFJochen HechtAssists: Derek Roy, Steve Montador · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Kris Versteeg stopped
- 2. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 3. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 4. BUF Thomas Vanek scored
- 5. TOR John Mitchell scored
- 6. BUF Derek Roy stopped
- 7. TOR Clarke MacArthur stopped
- 8. BUF Tim Connolly stopped
- 9. TOR Tomas Kaberle stopped
- 10. BUF Tyler Ennis scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:03TORKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:10BUFSteve Montador: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:10TORMike Komisarek: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:10BUFSteve Montador: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:54TORMike Brown: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:17BUFShaone Morrisonn: Holding2 min
- P3 7:32TORMike Brown: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hecht won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Kaleta – Ennis4:37
xG 0.50–0.18 (73%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Hecht – Connolly – Pominville4:54
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Gaustad12:06
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- McCormick – Ellis – Vanek2:25
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers5:19
xG 0.34–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Leopold – Montador17:07
xG 0.63–0.34 (64%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
- Rivet – Sekera8:30
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin13:20
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Versteeg – Kessel – Bozak15:35
xG 0.42–0.44 (48%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Orr – Brent – Caputi3:57
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Mitchell – Brown11:52
xG 0.42–0.96 (31%)attempts 9–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Komisarek15:43
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Holzer2:25
xG 0.20–0.05 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Schenn2:16
xG 0.06–0.09 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).