Sat, Nov 6, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Minnesota Wild 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 13 | 111 | 324 |
| CBJ | 111 | 116 | 010 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:49MINBrent BurnsPPAssists: Matt Cullen · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 14:18CBJRick NashAssists: Derick Brassard, Rostislav Klesla · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 5:45CBJKyle WilsonAssists: Marc Methot, Jared Boll · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 14:20MINBrent BurnsPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Martin Havlat · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 10:31MINCal ClutterbuckGWGAssists: Eric Nystrom, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:45MINMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:45CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:28CBJKyle Wilson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 12:18CBJNikita Filatov: Holding2 min
- P1 18:00MINBrent Burns: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:43MINJohn Madden: Holding2 min
- P2 14:10CBJRostislav Klesla: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:21MINClayton Stoner: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:12CBJAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:55MINCal Clutterbuck: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Brunette – Koivu – Clutterbuck10:19
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Brunette – Havlat – Koivu2:08
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Staubitz – Kassian – Almond2:24
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Wellman7:32
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Burns5:53
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns13:51
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Barker – Falk10:55
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Voracek11:49
xG 0.80–0.26 (76%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Wilson – Boll4:32
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Filatov9:37
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett12:08
xG 0.51–0.56 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Russell12:41
xG 0.50–0.18 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Hejda – Stralman14:49
xG 0.74–0.46 (62%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Klesla – Methot12:47
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).