Sun, Nov 7, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 4, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 29 | 012 | 23 | 424 |
| ANA | 211 | 09 | 317 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:52ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Bobby Ryan, Andreas Lilja · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 2:34NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Cal O'Reilly · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 10:49ANASaku KoivuAssists: Teemu Selanne, Jason Blake · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 17:16NSHSteve SullivanAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 0:49ANALubomir VisnovskyAssists: George Parros, Ryan Carter · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
- P3 6:15NSHCody FransonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 10:05ANASaku KoivuPPAssists: Toni Lydman, Jason Blake · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 16:13NSHCal O'ReillyAssists: Cody Franson, Marcel Goc · Tip-in, 0.26 xG4–4
- P3 19:58ANAPaul MaraGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:59ANAToni Lydman: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:07ANATeemu Selanne: Holding2 min
- P2 12:25NSHJ-P Dumont: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:39ANANick Bonino: Holding2 min
- P2 16:01ANARyan Carter: Interference2 min
- P3 8:05NSHShane O'Brien: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:55NSHSteve Sullivan: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:32NSHJordin Tootoo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smithson won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist10:51
xG 0.78–0.34 (70%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Legwand – Smithson – Tootoo4:41
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dumont – Ward – Goc3:40
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 7–2goals 1–1
- Ward – Goc – Wilson5:14
xG 0.15–0.21 (43%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSulzer – Franson8:21
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Bouillon – Weber19:06
xG 0.51–0.83 (38%)attempts 17–15goals 1–2
- Klein – O'Brien14:03
xG 0.40–1.02 (28%)attempts 8–19goals 1–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGreen – Parros – Carter10:31
xG 0.69–0.07 (91%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan13:17
xG 0.73–0.20 (78%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake10:24
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Marchant – Bonino – Palmieri5:58
xG 0.10–0.57 (16%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky14:25
xG 0.90–0.37 (71%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Lilja – Brookbank11:17
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Mara – Fowler15:39
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).