Tue, Nov 9, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh
Edmonton Oilers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 07 | 16 | 122 |
| CAR | 412 | 114 | 216 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Brandon Sutter, Jiri Tlusty · Deflected, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 1:15CARErik ColePPGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 4:10CARJoe CorvoPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 7:19CARChad LaRoseAssists: Eric Staal, Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 4:49CARJoe CorvoPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Brandon Sutter · Slap, 0.04 xG0–5
- P3 1:06CARSergei SamsonovAssists: Eric Staal, Joni Pitkanen · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–6
- P3 5:21EDMDustin PennerAssists: Kurtis Foster, Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–6
- P3 7:48CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Tuomo Ruutu · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–7
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:57EDMDustin Penner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 2:41EDMZack Stortini: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:27EDMSteve MacIntyre: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:29EDMTom Gilbert: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 5:19CARJay Harrison: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:42CARPatrick Dwyer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:29EDMAndrew Cogliano: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:18CARTom Kostopoulos: Holding2 min
- P3 8:16CARBrandon Sutter: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:25EDMKurtis Foster: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:04EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:04EDMTheo Peckham: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJones – Gagner – Paajarvi2:21
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Penner – Cogliano – Eberle4:09
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Brule – Paajarvi4:37
xG 0.12–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fraser – Stortini – MacIntyre2:01
xG 0.04–0.03 (55%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhitney – Peckham6:36
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Whitney – Smid2:15
xG 0.02–0.05 (31%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Foster – Whitney4:27
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Tlusty – Sutter9:34
xG 0.74–0.05 (93%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Cole – Ruutu – Skinner7:11
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Kostopoulos – Jokinen – Matsumoto9:57
xG 0.22–0.26 (45%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Samsonov – LaRose – Staal8:52
xG 0.58–0.66 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain13:44
xG 0.96–0.35 (73%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Corvo – Gleason11:14
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Harrison – Babchuk11:10
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).