Tue, Nov 9, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 013 | 06 | 028 |
| TBL | 314 | 07 | 14 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:10TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:39TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Mike Lundin, Dana Tyrell · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P1 19:13TBLDominic MooreAssists: Randy Jones, Ryan Malone · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 5:46TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Adam Hall, Mattias Ohlund · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:56TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 2:08TBLNate Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:20TORKorbinian Holzer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:51TBLMattias Ohlund: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:08TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:08TBLNate Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:21TORClarke MacArthur: Interference2 min
- P2 13:07TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P3 13:14TBLDominic Moore: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hall won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSjostrom – Mitchell – Brown3:39
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Kessel – Bozak6:38
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Orr – Brent – Caputi2:09
xG 0.01–0.03 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Orr – Sjostrom – Brent2:12
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lebda – Schenn2:04
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Komisarek10:05
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Schenn2:22
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Hall – Stamkos8:24
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Bergenheim – Purcell3:10
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos3:15
xG 0.12–0.04 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Bergenheim – Thompson5:05
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Jones11:23
xG 0.96–0.46 (68%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Kubina – Smaby3:48
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kubina – Lundin10:29
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).