Tue, Nov 9, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 16 | 312 | 425 |
| COL | 18 | 013 | 110 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:13COLBrandon YipPPAssists: Jonas Holos, TJ Galiardi · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 0:36CGYCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Rene Bourque · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 1:25COLChris StewartPPAssists: Milan Hejduk, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–2
- P3 9:03CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Niklas Hagman, David Moss · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–2
- P3 15:45CGYDavid MossGWGAssists: Niklas Hagman, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–2
- P3 19:26CGYCurtis GlencrossENAssists: Rene Bourque, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:17CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:24CGYSteve Staios: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:24COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:56COLDaniel Winnik: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:04CGYCory Sarich: Interference2 min
- P1 18:37COLDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:57COLDavid Liffiton: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:03CGYJarome Iginla: Holding2 min
- P2 10:03COLJonas Holos: Interference2 min
- P2 11:11CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:19CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
- P2 18:40COLScott Hannan: Holding2 min
- P2 19:42CGYCurtis Glencross: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00COLJohn-Michael Liles: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CGYCory Sarich: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Conroy won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHagman – Moss – Backlund6:12
xG 1.61–0.11 (94%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Glencross – Bourque6:55
xG 0.43–0.04 (92%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Hagman – Bourque3:51
xG 0.05–0.02 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan9:58
xG 0.16–0.75 (17%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Giordano8:28
xG 1.10–0.40 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Regehr – White11:00
xG 0.38–0.00 (99%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Sarich – Bouwmeester12:37
xG 0.73–0.46 (61%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Stewart – Galiardi2:43
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Porter – McLeod – O'Reilly3:15
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Winnik – McLeod – O'Reilly6:07
xG 0.25–0.24 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Winnik – Stastny – Stewart4:44
xG 0.02–0.05 (27%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiffiton – Holos5:38
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hannan – Shattenkirk10:50
xG 0.39–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Hannan – Holos4:37
xG 0.06–0.02 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).