Thu, Nov 11, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Washington Capitals 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 012 | 216 | 341 |
| WSH | 08 | 28 | 410 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:27TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 2:21WSHTom PotiAssists: Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 7:51WSHMike KnubleAssists: Brooks Laich, Tomas Fleischmann · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 2:43TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–2
- P3 4:33WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 10:46WSHAlexander SeminGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 12:43TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Dominic Moore, Martin St. Louis · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 15:08WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Alexander Semin, Jeff Schultz · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 19:44WSHAlexander SeminENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:44WSHMike Knuble: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:12WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:28WSHBrooks Laich: Interference2 min
- P2 14:36WSHMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:36TBLAdam Hall: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:03WSHJohn Erskine: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:17TBLDominic Moore: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Hall
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Hall – Stamkos7:33
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Bergenheim – Thompson – Purcell2:19
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Moore – Stamkos3:02
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Malone – Bergenheim – Purcell2:13
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 9–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Hedman11:42
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Kubina – Hedman3:17
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Kubina – Lundin10:11
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Ovechkin – Backstrom8:45
xG 0.64–0.28 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Chimera – Fleischmann – Fehr3:58
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Knuble – Laich – Fleischmann4:18
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Laich – Fleischmann – Semin3:44
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Alzner – Carlson15:23
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Schultz – Green18:26
xG 0.35–0.70 (33%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Poti – Erskine13:15
xG 0.39–0.82 (32%)attempts 7–17goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).