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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 11, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Nashville Predators 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (SO)

Away

Nashville Predators

3

Final

Shootout

Home

St. Louis Blues

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.

STL winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NSH04110112002326
STL190318031223

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:22STLDavid BackesAssists: Andy McDonald, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 13:44NSHCal O'ReillyAssists: Francis Bouillon, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
  3. P3 5:54STLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Patrik Berglund, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
  4. P3 13:08NSHJ-P DumontAssists: David Legwand, Shane O'Brien · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. STL Matt D'Agostini scored
  2. 2. NSH Cal O'Reilly scored
  3. 3. STL Brad Boyes stopped
  4. 4. NSH Steve Sullivan stopped
  5. 5. STL Andy McDonald stopped
  6. 6. NSH David Legwand stopped
  7. 7. STL Patrik Berglund stopped
  8. 8. NSH Marcel Goc scored
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 11:52NSHSteve Sullivan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P2 4:26STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 8:02STLDavid Backes: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P2 10:28NSHJordin Tootoo: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 15:54STLJay McClement: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 16:17STLEric Brewer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  7. P3 5:37STLAlexander Steen: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 5:37NSHJ-P Dumont: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 8:24NSHShea Weber: Charging2 min
  10. P3 8:24STLMatt D'Agostini: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 8:24NSHPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
  12. OT 3:41NSHAlexander Sulzer: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
47% to win53% to win
← NSH attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHSTL
26Shots on goal23
2.1Expected goals2.2
49Shot attempts44
26Faceoffs won29
4Power plays4
12Penalty minutes12
17Hits23
7Blocked shots12
7Giveaways3
6Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. bestSullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist12:28

    xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1

  2. Dumont – Legwand – Ward8:43

    xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0

  3. Smithson – Spaling – Wilson3:37

    xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0

  4. Goc – Tootoo – Kostitsyn9:28

    xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Klein – O'Brien3:04

    xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0

  2. O'Brien – Franson8:08

    xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  3. Sulzer – Franson2:34

    xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestMcDonald – Backes – Sobotka9:48

    xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0

  2. Boyes – Janssen – Drazenovic4:42

    xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

  3. Steen – D'Agostini – Berglund10:52

    xG 0.34–0.12 (75%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0

  4. McClement – Crombeen – Porter7:04

    xG 0.07–0.29 (20%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestOystrick – Strachan10:53

    xG 0.57–0.11 (84%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0

  2. Brewer – Johnson14:34

    xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0

  3. Nikitin – Johnson2:03

    xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.2 xGNSH 2.1 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #346 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.93 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 15% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.

STL winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).