Fri, Nov 12, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Minnesota Wild 1, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 18 | 05 | 010 | 123 |
| FLA | 213 | 010 | 04 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:53FLAChris HigginsAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Radek Dvorak · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 7:46FLAMike SantorelliGWGAssists: Rostislav Olesz, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 16:58MINCal ClutterbuckPPAssists: Nick Schultz, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:02FLAMike Weaver: Holding2 min
- P1 15:20FLASteve Bernier: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 19:52MINClayton Stoner: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:35MINGreg Zanon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:20MINClayton Stoner: Holding2 min
- P3 3:07MINCam Barker: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:25FLASteve Bernier: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:00MINBrent Burns: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00MINBrent Burns: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00FLABryan Allen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Clutterbuck – Wellman8:01
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Staubitz – Almond5:13
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu9:33
xG 0.04–0.21 (16%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Madden – Havlat – Nystrom8:53
xG 0.04–0.85 (5%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Zanon – Stoner2:31
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns13:10
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Stoner – Barker10:14
xG 0.59–0.80 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Reasoner – Higgins2:12
xG 0.44–0.01 (98%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Reinprecht – Higgins – Bernier6:36
xG 0.28–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Olesz – Booth – Santorelli9:33
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Weiss – Frolik – Matthias10:32
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov12:49
xG 0.82–0.07 (92%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Allen – Wideman13:34
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ellerby9:27
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).