Fri, Nov 12, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 15 | 09 | 115 | 229 |
| ANA | 118 | 012 | 37 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:56ANASaku KoivuAssists: Teemu Selanne, Jason Blake · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 14:52DALBrandon SegalAssists: Trevor Daley, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 1:53ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 9:36ANABobby RyanPPGWGAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 16:22DALBrad RichardsAssists: Loui Eriksson, James Neal · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:46ANABobby RyanENAssists: Toni Lydman, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:58DALStephane Robidas: Holding2 min
- P1 19:08DALStephane Robidas: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:34ANAPaul Mara: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:18DALStephane Robidas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 10:04ANAPaul Mara: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 16:58ANAPaul Mara: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Segal – Benn9:16
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal14:22
xG 0.79–0.47 (63%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish14:05
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Petersen – Sutherby – Wandell4:32
xG 0.04–0.08 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Fistric13:25
xG 0.93–0.35 (73%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Robidas – Grossmann14:33
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Skrastins – Niskanen14:18
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan15:07
xG 0.54–0.47 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Marchant – Bonino – Palmieri5:22
xG 0.04–0.06 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake12:48
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Green – Parros – Carter8:19
xG 0.21–0.59 (26%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lydman – Visnovsky16:16
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Lilja – Sbisa10:49
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Mara – Fowler16:12
xG 0.51–0.89 (36%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).