Mon, Nov 15, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 1, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 011 | 09 | 129 |
| PHI | 217 | 115 | 214 | 546 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:43PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Sean O'Donnell · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:40OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Alex Kovalev, Peter Regin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 12:17PHIDarroll PoweGWGAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 18:31PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Mike Richards, Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 6:13PHIMike RichardsSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 7:43PHIMike RichardsAssists: Braydon Coburn, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P2 6:16OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:55OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:33OTTErik Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:07PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:07OTTJarkko Ruutu: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 18:05OTTNick Foligno: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 5:23PHIDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:15OTTChris Neil: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Kovalev – Spezza – Regin12:07
xG 0.47–0.54 (46%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly8:17
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Shannon – Foligno – Winchester4:25
xG 0.19–0.28 (39%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Michalek9:02
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampoli – Karlsson2:11
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson15:30
xG 0.68–0.74 (48%)attempts 19–20goals 0–1
- Carkner – Campoli11:18
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino9:39
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Zherdev – Richards – van Riemsdyk10:21
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Shelley – Betts – Powe2:40
xG 0.06–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Giroux – Powe9:48
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Meszaros12:46
xG 0.78–0.41 (65%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Pronger – Carle14:03
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Timonen – Coburn12:20
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).