Mon, Nov 15, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
St. Louis Blues 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 112 | 19 | 330 |
| COL | 311 | 29 | 13 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:54STLAlexander SteenAssists: Patrik Berglund, Carlo Colaiacovo · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 5:05COLJohn-Michael LilesAssists: Greg Mauldin, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P1 12:55COLJohn-Michael LilesAssists: Ryan O'Byrne, Milan Hejduk · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 14:57COLPaul StastnyAssists: John-Michael Liles, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–3
- P2 14:54STLCarlo ColaiacovoAssists: Patrik Berglund, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 16:03COLBrandon YipGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Milan Hejduk · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 16:20COLDavid JonesAssists: Paul Stastny, Adam Foote · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 7:26STLBrad BoyesPPAssists: David Backes, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 13:48COLKevin PorterPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–6
Penalties (18)
- P1 2:10COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:10STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:14COLKevin Porter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:20COLRyan O'Byrne: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:20STLB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:20STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:01STLAlexander Steen: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:23STLChris Porter: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:52COLBrandon Yip: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:55STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:55COLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:55STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39COLMatt Duchene: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:39COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39COLScott Hannan: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39STLVladimir Sobotka: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:39STLB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39STLVladimir Sobotka: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Boyes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestWinchester – Porter – Drazenovic4:32
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Steen – D'Agostini – Berglund10:48
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- McDonald – Boyes – Backes12:29
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- McClement – Crombeen – Sobotka9:42
xG 0.30–0.75 (28%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Nikitin9:52
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Brewer – Johnson15:54
xG 0.43–0.71 (38%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo13:30
xG 0.68–1.13 (38%)attempts 11–11goals 2–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Stastny – Stewart13:25
xG 1.13–0.44 (72%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
- Porter – Winnik – O'Reilly11:00
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Mauldin – Dupuis – McLeod5:00
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Yip – Duchene10:26
xG 0.19–0.46 (30%)attempts 3–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – O'Byrne14:39
xG 1.45–0.36 (80%)attempts 18–10goals 3–0
- Foote – Wilson13:39
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 6–13goals 2–2
- Hannan – Shattenkirk12:09
xG 0.43–0.62 (41%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).