Wed, Nov 17, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 215 | 010 | 233 |
| WSH | 211 | 19 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:31WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 17:04WSHMatt BradleyAssists: Jason Chimera, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 2:45WSHDavid SteckelGWGAssists: Jason Chimera, Matt Bradley · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P2 12:07BUFDerek RoyPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Tim Connolly · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 12:55BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Cody McCormick, Rob Niedermayer · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:56WSHAlexander SeminENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:41WSHTyler Sloan: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:55BUFChris Butler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:08BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P2 11:32WSHMike Green: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:19WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:17WSHJason Chimera: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against McCormick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Connolly – Pominville11:12
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Roy – Vanek – Ennis11:12
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Ellis – Gerbe8:00
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick14:32
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Morrisonn – Butler12:43
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Sekera – Myers14:12
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Leopold – Montador19:13
xG 0.50–0.68 (42%)attempts 17–21goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Chimera – Steckel10:11
xG 0.77–0.03 (97%)attempts 16–3goals 2–0
- Laich – Semin – Backstrom9:54
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Fehr7:44
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Johansson11:33
xG 0.15–0.62 (19%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson16:51
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Erskine – Sloan11:36
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Schultz – Green17:10
xG 0.38–0.68 (36%)attempts 17–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).