Wed, Nov 17, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Florida Panthers 2, Atlanta Thrashers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 015 | 216 | 03 | 234 |
| ATL | 113 | 08 | 018 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:18ATLZach BogosianAssists: Johnny Oduya, Alexander Burmistrov · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 1:13FLAStephen WeissAssists: Cory Stillman, Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 18:03FLARadek DvorakGWGAssists: Chris Higgins, Marty Reasoner · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:15ATLDustin Byfuglien: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 4:20ATLToby Enstrom: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:37FLARadek Dvorak: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:48ATLAnthony Stewart: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Reasoner – Higgins10:30
xG 0.95–0.39 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Reinprecht – Matthias – Repik7:09
xG 0.49–0.16 (75%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Stillman – Weiss – Frolik8:36
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Olesz – Booth – Santorelli10:37
xG 0.20–0.48 (30%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison13:31
xG 1.61–0.92 (64%)attempts 16–20goals 2–0
- McCabe – Weaver2:16
xG 0.02–0.09 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Allen – Wideman16:29
xG 0.52–0.68 (43%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Little – Kane12:31
xG 0.76–0.24 (76%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Burmistrov2:01
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors14:25
xG 0.80–0.64 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater5:16
xG 0.30–0.48 (39%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Bogosian12:29
xG 0.85–0.54 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Sopel – Hainsey6:31
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian3:55
xG 0.22–0.13 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).