Thu, Nov 18, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 8, Philadelphia Flyers 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 411 | 39 | 113 | 833 |
| PHI | 513 | 28 | 011 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:21PHIAndreas NodlAssists: Nikolay Zherdev, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 5:03PHINikolay ZherdevAssists: Matt Carle, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 8:20TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Dan Ellis · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 8:36TBLAdam HallAssists: Nate Thompson, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.51 xG2–2
- P1 9:51PHIJeff CarterAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Sean O'Donnell · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P1 13:59TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Teddy Purcell · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P1 15:34PHIBraydon CoburnAssists: Matt Carle, Ville Leino · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P1 18:04PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Scott Hartnell, Sean O'Donnell · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–5
- P1 18:18TBLBrett ClarkAssists: Dominic Moore, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.05 xG4–5
- P2 4:11TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Mike Lundin · Snap, 0.02 xG5–5
- P2 4:59PHINikolay ZherdevAssists: Darroll Powe, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–6
- P2 9:27PHIAndrej MeszarosAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Blair Betts · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–7
- P2 9:41TBLSteve DownieAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.04 xG6–7
- P2 18:59TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Martin St. Louis · Snap, 0.06 xG7–7
- P3 5:19TBLNate ThompsonGWGAssists: Dana Tyrell, Sean Bergenheim · Wrist, 0.36 xG8–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:29PHIChris Pronger: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:07PHIMatt Carle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:06PHIClaude Giroux: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:33TBLTeddy Purcell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:05TBLNate Thompson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:23PHIMike Richards: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 1:34TBLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:34TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:56PHIMike Richards: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:49PHIDaniel Brière: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 16:37PHIAndrej Meszaros: Clipping2 min
- P3 16:37PHIAndrej Meszaros: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:51TBLPavel Kubina: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Brière
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Bergenheim – Thompson5:19
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Malone – Moore – Purcell6:29
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos8:22
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Lundin8:31
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 2–2
- Kubina – Lundin4:03
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Clark – Kubina3:55
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestZherdev – Richards – Nodl5:57
xG 0.68–0.26 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Carter – Giroux – Powe5:17
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Shelley – Betts – van Riemsdyk2:45
xG 0.04–0.01 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino13:22
xG 0.50–1.13 (31%)attempts 10–8goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Meszaros14:16
xG 0.74–0.05 (94%)attempts 15–5goals 3–0
- Timonen – Coburn9:39
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 14–3goals 0–1
- Pronger – Carle8:26
xG 0.95–1.17 (45%)attempts 11–8goals 3–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).