Sat, Nov 20, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Florida Panthers 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 410 | 012 | 431 |
| NYI | 111 | 08 | 021 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:07NYIMatt MoulsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 2:27FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Shawn Matthias, Bryan Allen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 3:06FLAMarty ReasonerGWGAssists: Radek Dvorak, Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 6:25FLAMike SantorelliAssists: David Booth, Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–1
- P2 10:21FLAStephen WeissAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:09NYIJesse Joensuu: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:38NYIZenon Konopka: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:36FLADavid Booth: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:51FLABryan Allen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:11NYIPA Parenteau: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:43FLABryan Allen: Holding2 min
- P2 19:18NYIZenon Konopka: Interference2 min
- P3 6:01NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:37NYIMark Eaton: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:08FLADennis Wideman: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBooth – Santorelli – Matthias3:33
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Stillman – Weiss – Frolik5:38
xG 0.13–0.06 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Hordichuk – Thomas – Matthias3:22
xG 0.06–0.20 (24%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Reasoner – Higgins9:53
xG 0.37–0.75 (33%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Allen – Wideman11:28
xG 0.61–0.66 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Allen – Weaver2:32
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Weaver – Garrison11:34
xG 0.38–0.73 (35%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestSchremp – Comeau – Bailey9:31
xG 1.13–0.08 (93%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Konopka – Joensuu – Martin8:59
xG 1.02–0.35 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Hunter – Nielsen – Grabner7:55
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:54
xG 0.54–0.92 (37%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Martinek11:01
xG 1.19–0.15 (89%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Mottau – Wisniewski12:45
xG 0.59–0.86 (41%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Gervais – Reese12:09
xG 0.24–0.72 (25%)attempts 14–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).