Sat, Nov 20, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
New Jersey Devils 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 113 | 114 | 010 | 237 |
| STL | 17 | 19 | 111 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Travis Zajac, Brian Rolston · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 9:22STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: David Backes, Brad Boyes · Tip-in, 0.35 xG1–1
- P2 9:53NJDMattias TedenbyAssists: Patrik Elias · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 18:58STLEric BrewerAssists: Matt D'Agostini, Erik Johnson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 5:15STLBrad WinchesterGWGAssists: Tyson Strachan, Matt D'Agostini · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:03STLAndy McDonald: Holding2 min
- P1 8:48NJDJason Arnott: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:01NJDStephen Gionta: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:21STLT.J. Hensick: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:26NJDHenrik Tallinder: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:40STLBrad Winchester: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:47NJDMattias Tedenby: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Elias – Tedenby8:51
xG 0.93–0.26 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Rolston – Clarkson – Zajac12:15
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Zubrus – Kovalchuk – Vasyunov11:52
xG 0.81–0.47 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Mair – Pelley – Gionta5:20
xG 0.06–0.56 (10%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Greene4:41
xG 0.86–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Greene – Corrente8:11
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- White – Tallinder11:13
xG 0.72–0.49 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Sobotka – Hensick5:01
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – Crombeen11:17
xG 0.31–0.54 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Winchester – D'Agostini – Berglund9:23
xG 0.20–0.71 (22%)attempts 3–13goals 1–1
- McDonald – Boyes – Backes12:43
xG 0.34–1.12 (23%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Strachan3:11
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Strachan – Nikitin7:43
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Johnson13:59
xG 0.83–1.18 (41%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).