Sun, Nov 21, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 4, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 214 | 28 | 426 |
| ANA | 019 | 213 | 08 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:48EDMSam GagnerAssists: Ales Hemsky, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 8:29EDMTaylor HallAssists: Ryan Whitney, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 16:33ANABobby RyanPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Lubomir Visnovsky · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 16:55ANASaku KoivuAssists: Dan Sexton, Jason Blake · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 13:29EDMAles HemskyGWGAssists: Dustin Penner, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 19:44EDMTom GilbertENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.39 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:14EDMGilbert Brule: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:18ANAAaron Voros: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:06EDMMagnus Paajarvi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:00EDMKurtis Foster: Holding2 min
- P2 3:30ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:56EDMRyan Whitney: Holding2 min
- P2 16:25EDMTheo Peckham: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 10:15ANAAndy Sutton: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Eberle – Hall13:28
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Jones – Brule – Cogliano9:02
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Jacques – Fraser – Paajarvi4:35
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Penner – Gagner12:12
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Whitney16:25
xG 0.99–0.53 (65%)attempts 19–12goals 3–1
- Foster – Belle10:21
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Peckham13:50
xG 0.46–0.74 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan9:05
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Marchant – Voros – Carter2:16
xG 0.19–0.11 (62%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Marchant – Bonino – McMillan3:36
xG 0.08–0.08 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – McMillan6:36
xG 0.24–0.29 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky18:24
xG 0.72–0.57 (56%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Sutton – Fowler14:01
xG 0.71–0.59 (55%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Lilja – Sbisa8:27
xG 0.35–0.72 (33%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).