Mon, Nov 22, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Nashville Predators 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 06 | 012 | 027 |
| CBJ | 112 | 18 | 010 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37CBJMike CommodoreGWGAssists: R.J. Umberger, Nikita Filatov · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 14:14CBJRick NashAssists: Jakub Voracek, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:09CBJChris Clark: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:30NSHSteve Sullivan: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00NSHMartin Erat: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:32CBJAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:20NSHJ-P Dumont: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:28CBJJan Hejda: Interference2 min
- P3 1:24NSHJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:52CBJMike Commodore: Holding2 min
- P3 18:44NSHShane O'Brien: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Goc – Kostitsyn – Wilson2:40
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist10:22
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Spaling – Wilson2:43
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Tootoo4:58
xG 0.02–0.35 (6%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sulzer – Franson4:20
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Franson8:42
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Weber14:52
xG 0.36–0.53 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Umberger – Filatov9:52
xG 0.79–0.14 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett9:15
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Murray – Boll5:54
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek9:14
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Stralman10:39
xG 0.60–0.17 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Commodore – Tyutin8:34
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Klesla – Tyutin4:43
xG 0.40–0.03 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).