Wed, Nov 24, 2010·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 2, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 110 | 16 | 223 |
| VAN | 17 | 17 | 25 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:32VANKevin BieksaAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Manny Malhotra · Deflected, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 5:05COLJohn-Michael LilesPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 10:00VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 3:52VANRyan KeslerGWGAssists: Mason Raymond, Jeff Tambellini · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 6:46COLMatt DucheneAssists: John-Michael Liles, Brandon Yip · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 13:07VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:13COLCody McLeod: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:55VANAndrew Alberts: Interference2 min
- P1 14:56VANKeith Ballard: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:12COLCody McLeod: Holding2 min
- P2 3:20VANDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:27COLPhilippe Dupuis: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:58VANDan Hamhuis: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:25COLCody McLeod: Elbowing2 min
- P3 16:47VANChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Porter – Duchene9:45
xG 0.61–0.27 (69%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Yip – Winnik – O'Reilly7:17
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Mauldin – Dupuis – McLeod2:16
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Stewart9:52
xG 0.05–0.65 (7%)attempts 3–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – O'Byrne9:00
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hannan – Shattenkirk10:16
xG 0.54–0.40 (57%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Liles – Wilson2:39
xG 0.24–0.16 (59%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows9:39
xG 0.45–0.03 (93%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- Malhotra – Samuelsson – Torres7:41
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kesler – Tambellini – Raymond9:53
xG 0.47–0.42 (52%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Perrault – Glass – Hansen4:19
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Edler13:19
xG 0.77–0.13 (85%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa13:51
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Ballard – Edler2:45
xG 0.01–0.12 (8%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).