Fri, Nov 26, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Calgary Flames 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 18 | 112 | 01 | 2 | 330 |
| PHI | 011 | 213 | 08 | 04 | 1 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:09PHINikolay ZherdevAssists: Matt Carle, Blair Betts · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 13:17CGYCurtis GlencrossSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 15:01PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 7:09CGYSteve StaiosAssists: Alex Tanguay, Jarome Iginla · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 2. CGY Alex Tanguay stopped
- 3. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
- 4. CGY Niklas Hagman scored
- 5. PHI Mike Richards stopped
- 6. CGY Rene Bourque scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:23CGYMark Giordano: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:44PHIVille Leino: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:50PHIJody Shelley: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:48CGYRene Bourque: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:20CGYRobyn Regehr: Elbowing2 min
- P2 12:29CGYNiklas Hagman: Interference2 min
- P3 4:55CGYMikael Backlund: Boarding2 min
- OT 2:43CGYMark Giordano: Holding the stick2 min
- OT 3:25PHIChris Pronger: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Moss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Kostopoulos – Hagman10:18
xG 0.81–0.25 (77%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Conroy – Morrison – Jackman3:16
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Backlund10:45
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Iginla – Jokinen – Hagman3:43
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Giordano14:17
xG 1.28–0.46 (74%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano2:31
xG 0.15–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester13:27
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk8:40
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Shelley – Betts – Powe2:32
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Carter – Giroux4:45
xG 0.14–0.25 (35%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Giroux – Powe6:31
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Coburn2:30
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
- O'Donnell – Meszaros11:56
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Pronger – Carle13:20
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).