Fri, Nov 26, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 18 | 112 | 232 |
| CBJ | 013 | 012 | 110 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:04DETJohan FranzenAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 8:06DETValtteri FilppulaPPGWGAssists: Brad Stuart, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 9:05CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Jared Boll, R.J. Umberger · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:15DETRuslan Salei: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:39DETTodd Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:02DETJiri Hudler: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:53DETRuslan Salei: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 10:38DETValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:22DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00CBJMike Commodore: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:11CBJFedor Tyutin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:39CBJMike Commodore: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen8:08
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg8:11
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Eaves – Abdelkader – Helm4:17
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Modano – Cleary – Hudler3:16
xG 0.09–0.15 (36%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalei – Kronwall12:42
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart12:05
xG 0.43–0.50 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Rafalski – Ericsson13:54
xG 0.55–0.63 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Umberger – Boll4:56
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Pahlsson – Murray – Dorsett2:03
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Filatov4:57
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett9:20
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCommodore – Hejda2:24
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Commodore – Russell12:26
xG 0.66–0.56 (54%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Hejda – Stralman12:19
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).