Fri, Nov 26, 2010·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
San Jose Sharks 1, Vancouver Canucks 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 016 | 09 | 133 |
| VAN | 115 | 26 | 311 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:32VANJeff TambelliniAssists: Alexander Edler, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 15:22SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 2:36VANRaffi TorresGWGAssists: Jannik Hansen, Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 4:24VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Tanner Glass · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 7:00VANMikael SamuelssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 14:50VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.19 xG1–5
- P3 16:38VANKeith BallardUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–6
Penalties (2)
- P1 11:48SJSDan Boyle: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:27VANKeith Ballard: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Pavelski – Couture16:56
xG 0.63–0.30 (67%)attempts 25–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley10:08
xG 0.36–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Marleau – Mitchell – McGinn5:42
xG 0.02–0.25 (7%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Thornton – Heatley – Setoguchi4:35
xG 0.18–0.48 (27%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Joslin2:48
xG 0.02–0.02 (50%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Huskins – Joslin2:06
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun14:13
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows13:42
xG 1.00–0.56 (64%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Kesler – Tambellini – Raymond9:15
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Samuelsson – Torres3:45
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Hansen – Raymond2:49
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Edler19:05
xG 0.96–0.77 (56%)attempts 15–22goals 3–0
- Alberts – Rome14:17
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Rome2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).