Sat, Nov 27, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Rangers 2, Nashville Predators 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 07 | 15 | 01 | 1 | 224 |
| NSH | 113 | 05 | 011 | 01 | 0 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10NSHColin WilsonAssists: Marcel Goc, Francis Bouillon · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 13:04NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYR Erik Christensen scored
- 2. NSH Cal O'Reilly stopped
- 3. NYR Derek Stepan stopped
- 4. NSH Marcel Goc stopped
- 5. NYR Ryan Callahan stopped
- 6. NSH Martin Erat stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:00NSHJordin Tootoo: Holding2 min
- P1 14:31NYRSean Avery: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:31NSHJordin Tootoo: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:35NSHJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:35NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:47NSHShane O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:47NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:09NSHPekka Rinne: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 1:55NYRAlex Frolov: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:01NYRBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:05NSHFrancis Bouillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:13NSHPekka Rinne: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P3 9:30NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smithson won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Frolov – Christensen5:20
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust4:43
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov5:22
xG 0.07–0.08 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Avery – Stepan3:33
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Gilroy2:14
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Staal12:34
xG 0.21–0.26 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi2:20
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestErat – Goc – Wilson3:52
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Dumont – Erat – Goc7:01
xG 0.43–0.20 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Smithson – Ward – Tootoo8:40
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist9:24
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber16:21
xG 0.80–0.14 (85%)attempts 26–9goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein12:13
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Klein – O'Brien2:25
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).