Sat, Nov 27, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 15 | 214 | 16 | 425 |
| EDM | 19 | 03 | 213 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10SJSBenn FerrieroAssists: Logan Couture, Justin Braun · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 3:55EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–1
- P2 2:06SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 17:04SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Justin Braun, Joe Thornton · Deflected, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 9:02SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Dany Heatley · Snap, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 12:39EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Whitney · Snap, 0.29 xG4–2
- P3 13:36EDMJim VandermeerAssists: Sam Gagner · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:43SJSJohn McCarthy: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 2:43EDMColin Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:27SJSDouglas Murray: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:42EDMTaylor Hall: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:31EDMRyan Jones: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:08SJSTommy Wingels: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:32EDMKurtis Foster: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Mitchell – McGinn11:53
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley13:22
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Clowe – Ferriero – Couture9:15
xG 0.81–0.70 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Mayers – McCarthy – Wingels6:16
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun16:57
xG 1.39–0.40 (78%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Boyle – Murray20:13
xG 0.68–0.69 (50%)attempts 18–17goals 1–2
- Huskins – Vlasic5:01
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Eberle – Hall15:00
xG 0.98–0.36 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Jones – Gagner – Paajarvi9:33
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Jacques – Fraser – Stortini6:57
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Penner – Brule – Cogliano11:24
xG 0.12–0.98 (11%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFoster – Whitney2:04
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Peckham14:04
xG 0.71–0.44 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Whitney2:09
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).